Did Moscow Offer to Take Maduro if US Topples Zelensky?

ANALYSIS by Susan Katz Keating

Over the past few days, speculation has gone wild that the U.S. is about to flex military muscle in Venezuela. Rumors spread so fast over the weekend that people rearranged their lives just to be on “Venezuela Watch.” Nothing happened – at least, nothing anyone could confirm. But I wonder what’s going on in the backrooms. Specifically, could Moscow be offering asylum to Maduro in return for the U.S. toppling Zelensky?

READ MORE: Guns, Drugs, and Oil: How Close is Venezuela to Boiling Over?

This speculation isn’t out of thin air. On 6 December, 2025, Russia’s state-linked media outlet RT quoted former Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov saying “the US could depose Zelensky should he obstruct Washington’s peace efforts.” Moscow controls RT, so treat the message with caution; but it was deliberate. Moscow wanted it out there.

This is coupled with the recent suggestion from a senior Russian parliamentarian that the U.S. should hold diplomatic talks with Venezuela — a sign Moscow is very much invested in Caracas. And of course, in its own agenda.

Swapping Maduro for Zelensky could be on the table.

The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Soldier of Fortune. Maduro could not be reached.

Why would such a deal be attractive? For its part, Russia wants to rid itself of a thorn in the form of Zelensky. For Moscow, restoring influence in Latin America by solving the Maduro problem would demonstrate that Russia still commands global reach, and has Washington’s respect. The U.S., for its part, wants stability and access within its own hemisphere. And in light of Washington’s recent dealings with Kyiv, a change of leadership might seem attractive.

The idea isn’t without historical precedent. In December 2024, after Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, Russia granted asylum to Assad and his family, welcoming them into Moscow.

History is full of similar moves: Yalta, Cold War non-interference zones, covert swaps that never made headlines. Great powers trade influence like chips in a high-stakes game.

Would Washington really depose Zelenskyy? Not with tanks in Kyiv. Realpolitik works subtler: funding leverage, political pressure, “transition talks.”

Is this deal happening? There’s no proof. But the possibility exists that a high-stakes game is being played behind closed doors. Ultimately, it’s nothing new. And it could explain why the tense “Venezuela Watch” parties fizzled without action.

For those of us on the edges, watching, guessing, and reading the signs, the message is simple. The next move may never be announced. By the time it lands, the pieces already will have shifted.

Susan Katz Keating is the publisher and editor in chief at Soldier of Fortune.